India's GDP is estimated to grow at 7.4 per cent in the financial year 2022-23 with rising prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict posing as the biggest challenge to the global economic recovery, Ficci's Economic Outlook Survey released on Sunday said. According to the survey, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to start a rate hike cycle in the second half of 2022, while a repo rate hike of 50-75 bps is expected by the end of the current fiscal. The RBI is expected to continue supporting the ongoing economic recovery by keeping the repo rate unchanged in its April policy review, the survey said.
'When you do some job for a few hours, you are hardly earning enough to survive.'
The Union home ministry has cancelled the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA) registration of the Centre for Policy Research (CPR) for alleged violation of laws, a move the public think-tank termed "incomprehensible and disproportionate" and vowed to seek legal recourse against.
The economic slowdown has taken its toll on consumer confidence. India has fallen from the top to third in the latest round of the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey and now ranks behind Indonesia and Denmark. It is the largest bi-annual study of its kind and is carried out on more than 25,000 Internet users in 50 countries.
The external environment has worsened further. While the Finnish economy entered into a recession, Swedish economic growth also dipped. The Finnish gross domestic product (GDP) dropped 0.6 per cent in October-December, 2022. It was the second quarter of negative growth, which is a technical definition of recession.
The Economic Survey says, massive efforts are needed in the form of investment in social infrastructure, skill development and empowerment of women.
The Annual Survey of Industry, carried out by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation for the year 2008-09 shows that the growth in Gross Value Addition in the manufacturing industry nearly halved to 10.59 per cent from 20.12 per cent in 2007-08.
A senior WCD official said the ministry has asked the Thomson Reuters Foundation, which conducted the survey, for details on the experts to ascertain the report's authenticity, but no reply has been received as yet.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das has pitched for policy support from all sides -- fiscal, monetary and sectoral -- to nurture recovery of the economy hit by the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. The dent on economic activity due to the second wave of the pandemic during April-May necessitated continuation of monetary measures to support the process of economic recovery to make it durable, Das had said while participating in the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) earlier in the month. "Overall, the second wave of COVID-19 has altered the near-term outlook, and policy support from all sides - fiscal, monetary and sectoral - is required to nurture recovery and expedite return to normalcy," Das said, as per the minutes of the meeting released on Friday.
The survey said it was generally accepted that India needs more knowledge workers and that, for economic growth to continue at current levels, there should be a greater emphasis on creativity and innovation. The study in 25 countries with special focus on five emerging economies, including India, showcases issues being faced across the world in educating children for the 21st century.
'In the larger cities, we can see that 12%-20% of the population making use of the metros. I don't think it is happening in the smaller cities.'
Battle lines have already been drawn and the opposition has insisted on a debate on demonetisation.
Coming Wednesday, Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman will present the 2023 Union Budget - the last full Budget ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. While India exited 2022 as a relatively bright spot in the global economy, the FM will endeavour to present a Budget that insulates India's economy against global headwinds and recession in advanced economies, while sticking to the path of fiscal consolidation. In this, she is being helped by her core team of trusted advisors.
'We can go somewhere between 35 per cent and 40 per cent.'
Wary of India's economic growth, an overwhelming majority of Chinese have a negative opinion about India, a recent survey has found.
"The cost of economic crime in India is significant, which is also evident from some of the large frauds experienced by the country in the last two years," said PricewaterhouseCoopers Advisory Leader Ashwini Puri, adding, "Additionally, average cost to manage economic crime in India is close to double as compared to global averages."
Fitch Ratings on Thursday retained India's growth forecast for the current fiscal at 6.3 per cent citing economic resilience despite tighter monetary policy and exports weakness, but upped year-end inflation projection on El Nino threat. The Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal on strong services sector activity and robust demand. "The Indian economy continues to show resilience despite tighter monetary policy and weakness in exports, with growth outpacing other countries in the region," Fitch said, while projecting 6.3 per cent growth for current fiscal (April-March), and 6.5 per cent for next fiscal.
Indian policymakers are almost alone, alongside the United States, in seeking a hard and multi-sectoral global decoupling from China in the expectation that it will boost their economies, observes Mihir S Sharma.
The decline in demand and rise in raw material prices due to high transportation costs are the major problems faced by micro, small and medium enterprises in the last 27 months, according to a survey. The report by Bhartiya Yuva Shakti Trust (BYST) also said that though markets have stabilised, about 57 per cent of the units that participated in the survey are struggling to get new orders for their merchandise. "Lesser purchasing power of consumers lead to reduced demand and increased raw material cost due to higher transportation cost with increase in fuel prices have been cited among key problems faced by entrepreneurs during the last 27 months," Lakshmi Venkataraman Venkatesan, founding and managing trustee, BYST, said.
Global forecasting firm Oxford Economics on Monday revised downwards its India GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 10.2 per cent from 11.8 per cent previously, citing the country's escalating health burden, faltering vaccination rate and lack of a convincing government strategy to contain the pandemic. Oxford Economics also said that notwithstanding the likelihood of further mobility restrictions, it expects India's targeted lockdown approach, less stringent restrictions, and resilient consumer and business behaviour to mitigate the economic impact of the second wave.
Since March 31, 2022, the PSBs' market cap has risen 43.7 per cent, from Rs. 7.29 trillion to Rs. 10.47 trillion. It's time for the government, the majority owner of public sector banks, to reap the benefit of the rally in bank stocks, recommends Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'Commentators have said that dealing with allies as equals will make Modi more sensitive.' 'Remember that the people Modi is dealing with are equally autocratic in their own lairs.' 'Further, Modi always has handy the threat of dissolving Parliament and calling for fresh polls.' 'Most of his own party, and certainly his allies and opponents having blown their budgets of efforts and resources in the just concluded elections, have no stomach for this.' 'They are all greatly looking forward to the loaves and fishes of office on offer.' 'That gives Modi an unbeatable advantage in any push-comes-to-shove situation,' explains Shreekant Sambrani.
'The actions of Indian monetary authorities will depend on how quickly they want the inflation to come down to 4 per cent.'
India is ranked 12th in terms of services GDP among the world's top 15 countries, says the Economic Survey.
The immediate need is to put more money in the hands of agriculture-based and rural households to improve their purchasing power, says S Mahendra Dev.
While Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan are considered the least corrupt among 13 major Asian economies, India, ranked 8th, fared better than 10th-placed China in a survey conducted by a regional think-tank. The annual survey by the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy excludes countries like Myanmar and Bangladesh, notorious for corruption.
Rediff.com's data journalists have broken down the National Sample Survey Office 68 round (July 2011- June 2012) report data into a state-wise listing.
The session will begin with President Ram Nath Kovind's address to the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha assembled together in the Central Hall and chambers of both the Houses in view of the COVID-19 situation.
A Reserve Bank-authorised survey on Monday lowered the country's economic growth rate projection to 5.7 per cent for the current fiscal, down from 6 per cent estimated earlier.
The government on Monday said that matters regarding Chinese intrusion can't be discussed in Parliament as it concerns the security of the country.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Markets ended a five-week losing streak and gained nearly a per cent last week, helped by a sharp rebound on Friday. Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 500.65 points or 0.77 per cent and the Nifty gained 169.5 points or 0.87 per cent.
India must concentrate on manufacturing-led growth.
Officials in the state urban development department said that RITES has started soil testing at four places in Patna to conduct techno-economic feasibility study for a monorail here.
Around 58 per cent of developers expect housing prices to increase this year because of rise in input costs, while 32 per cent builders feel it will remain stable, according to a survey. According to the 'Real Estate Developers Sentiment Survey', by Realtors apex body CREDAI, real estate consultant Colliers India and property research firm Liases Foras, 43 per cent of developers expect residential demand to remain stable in 2023, while 31 per cent feel the demand would increase up to 25 per cent. As many as 341 real estate developers from various parts of the country participated in the joint survey conducted during the last two months.
The government last year introduced the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code.
Arvind Subramanian was appointed CEA in October 2014 and got a year's extension in September 2017
Farm loan waiver has been presumed to be inflationary. But the short-term consequences are likely to be quite deflationary.
India's economic growth can reach a sustainable 10 per cent and be spread more evenly across the country if the government pursues ambitious and wide-ranging economic reforms, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has said in a survey.
Sumit Makhija, associate director, PwC said, "We have seen that frauds are happening in three main areas asset misappropriation by employees, financial mismanagement and corruption and bribery."
The Budget Session will be held from January 29 to April 6.
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